Robert Dahl in his book Polyarchy & Participation: The Changing Democratic Theory posits that “Presidents who face mounting opposition have two choices: They can reform, or they can repress.”  Nic Cheeseman, Gabrielle Lynch and Justin Willis in their joint article Ghana: The Ebbing Power of Incumbency point out that “When incumbents agree to reform, transfers of power become far more likely, as [was seen] in Ghana and Nigeria. When presidents lash out with coercion, as in Burundi and Chad, hopes for democratic consolidation are most often dashed amid hardening autocracy.” Kenyans are voting on Tuesday 8 August 2017 in an election described as tight and close between incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga. Which way will Kenya go? In the event the incumbent is fairly defeated will he accept the results? And in the event Mr. Odinga loses, will he accept the result?

4 August 2017